Auction Analysis Spotlight: New York’s November Auctions

Victoria Kleiner, Head of Art Due Diligence and Digital Art Expertise

Christopher Mann, MSc CEng MIET MIoP, Head of Data

Approx. $1.3 billion worth of art was sold during the New York Marquee November sale week, with 1749 lots offered for sale.

The two big single-owner sales of the week – Sydell Miller at Sotheby’s and Mica Ertegun at Christie’s – saw overall good bidding, with the fresh to market provenance of both collections providing reassurance for buyers. The total for the Miller sales, Day and Evening, was $227.5 million, whilst the Ertegun sales totalled $189 million.

One of the top moments of the Miller auction came with the sale of Claude Monet’s ‘Water Lilies’, one of the most sought after of the artist’s series, despite the fact that it was unsigned.

The major highlight of the Ertegun sale, René Magritte’s ‘Empire of Light’ achieved a new record for the artist, as expected, achieving a premium price of $121 million. It was one of 12 works by Magritte on offer at the sales, and 13% of the overall sales total of the week was achieved by Magritte. However, despite the perennial popularity of the artist, the volume of works coming to market allows buyers to be fairly choosy: of those 12 works, 2 went unsold, 6 sold at or below their low estimates, and 4 sold at or above their high estimates.

Overstone’s Analytics shows the growth of the artist’s market since 2016, despite the current buyer’s market, with the average hammer price rising from $350,000 to $2.8 million in 2023. Even before the record-breaking sale at Christie’s, Magritte’s market has been steadily growing despite the general market correction since its post-pandemic peak in 2021.

Overstone Analytics: René Magritte’s Hammer Price Average against the Market Hammer Price Average (This data is not yet including the New York November Sales)

The graph below shows the price deviation and bought-in (BI) rate for lots by Magritte sold between 2016 and Q3 2024. Following a decline in 2023, the price deviation goes above 0 in 2024, almost on a par with 2022 and above the result of 2021 when the general market was peaking following the pandemic . Furthermore, the BI rate for works with a low estimate above $30,000 lowers in 2024 from 2023. These two points indicate a decrease in price and market volatility, as overall works are performing better against their estimates and more likely to sell in 2024 than in 2023, despite the current buyer’s market.

René Magritte's Bought-In Rate and Price Deviation, 2016 - 2024 Q3 (Overstone Analytics

Christie’s saw 8 auction records set in the course of its 21st Century Evening Sale. A record was also set for a Jean-Michael Basquiat work on paper. There had been some concerns beforehand concerning the level of the estimate, which at $20-30 million was more on par with serious oils by the artist, but the work achieved a premium price of $23 million (however, it is worth noting that the work was apparently acquired by Jose Mugrabi, whose family is one of the leading collectors of Basquiat’s work, so this could have been some tactical market support on the part of the Mugrabis).

Highlights at Sotheby’s included – of course – Maurizio Cattelan’s subversive ‘Comedian’, a banana duct taped to a wall which was bought by Crypto king-pin Justin Sun for a premium total of $6.24 million, comfortably exceeding its high estimate of $1.5 million. Sun announced shortly after the sale that he was planning to eat the banana, making it possibly the most expensive snack in history.

Sotheby’s also saw an extended bidding battle for Leonora Carrington’s large-scale Surrealist sculpture, ‘La Grande Dame (The Cat Woman)’, which sold for $11.4 million against its estimate of $5-7 million. Works by other female Surrealist artists, such as Gertrude Abercrombie and Leonor Fini, also saw strong results, continuing the trend of growing interest in female artists from this group that has been evident over the past few auction seasons.

Overall, there were positive takeaways from this week. Although this is still primarily a buyer’s market, there was healthy bidding on a large number of lots and some strong prices for trophy works, suggesting that the market may be gradually beginning to show signs of an upturn.