Is the art market coming to the end of the age of eternal growth?
Further weak auction results, plus economic turmoil, raise fears the trade may have passed its peak
The art market is one of the many international business sectors that is wondering what is going to happen to its sales figures in 2025 as US President Donald Trump’s wildly unpredictable executive orders—and a whole lot else—disrupt the global economy.
In March the French database Artprice released a report, The Art Market in 2024, which states that last year global art auctions (the only sector of the market with transparent, quantifiable sales data) raised $9.9bn, a decline of 33.5% year-on-year, owing to a “contraction of the high-end market”. It adds that this was the third year in a row that overall auction turnover has declined, shrinking to the lowest level since 2009. On the other hand, the report’s data show that the number of lots sold in 2024 reached a record high of 804,000, with about half of these selling for under $600. Many buyers “took advantage of cheaper purchasing opportunities”, according to Artprice’s report.
The art market, like most markets, is obsessed with growth. However, record numbers of works selling for under $600 is not the kind of growth that the senior management of auction houses like Sotheby's and Christie’s, or indeed of mega-dealerships like Gagosian or Hauser & Wirth, is looking for.
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“Trump’s proposal to extend tax cuts and deregulation will disproportionately benefit the highest earners, who are the most likely to be buying art at the top level. As such, this could encourage buying amongst this US cohort over the next few months, especially over the next big marquee sales in New York in May,” says Harco van den Oever, the founder and chief executive of the London-based financial advisory, Overstone Art Services. “However, given that multiple other nations participate in the art market, this may be counteracted by wider economic uncertainty on a global scale,” Van den Oever adds.